Simulation Lab Intelligence

Dashboard Governance Economy Marsh Teams Profile
🧠

Intelligence

Deep analytics on Canada's economic causal model

2602 Variables
9617 Causal Links
68 Commodities
61% Avg Confidence
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🇨🇦 Canadian Debt Spotlight

Real government debt figures across federal, provincial, and municipal levels

Federal Debt (Accumulated Deficit)
$1,368B
That's $34,200 per Canadian
FEDERAL
Effective Interest Rate on Debt
4.1%
FEDERAL
Federal Debt-to-GDP Ratio
42.3%
FEDERAL
Public Debt Charges (Interest)
$55.6B
MUNICIPAL
Calgary Municipal Debt
$3.5B
MUNICIPAL
Debt Servicing
$0.3B
PROVINCIAL
Alberta Debt Servicing
$3.2B
PROVINCIAL
Alberta Debt-to-GDP Ratio
17.2%
PROVINCIAL
Alberta Net Debt
$76.8B

Debt Ripple Effects

What does the national debt directly influence?

Debt Servicing Cost other
↑ positive strength: 3% confidence: 100%
Budgetary Balance (Deficit/Surplus) fiscal
↓ negative strength: 90% confidence: 100%
Fiscal Room (Capacity for New Spending) fiscal
↓ negative strength: 100% confidence: 95%
Federal Debt-to-GDP Ratio fiscal
↑ positive strength: 12% confidence: 95%
Budgetary Balance (Deficit/Surplus) fiscal
↓ negative strength: 80% confidence: 95%
Effective Interest Rate on Debt fiscal
↑ positive strength: 75% confidence: 90%
Public Debt Charges (Interest) fiscal
↑ positive strength: 4% confidence: 90% 12mo delay
Credit Rating other
↓ negative strength: 70% confidence: 85%
Federal Net Debt Per Canadian Under Age 18 fiscal
↑ positive strength: 70% confidence: 85% 6mo delay
Federal Revenues revenue
↓ negative strength: 30% confidence: 85%
Credit Rating other
↓ negative strength: 65% confidence: 80%
Federal Budget Balance financial
↓ negative strength: 60% confidence: 80%
Income Tax Revenue revenue
↓ negative strength: 50% confidence: 75%
Bank of Canada Policy Rate economic
↑ positive strength: 40% confidence: 75%
Fiscal Sustainability Index fiscal
↓ negative strength: 60% confidence: 70%
Provincial Separation Referendum Risk operational
↑ positive strength: 60% confidence: 70%
Fiscal Sustainability Index fiscal
↓ negative strength: 50% confidence: 70%
10-Year Bond Rate economic
↑ positive strength: 3% confidence: 65% 24mo delay
Direct Program Expenses spending
↓ negative strength: 15% confidence: 60% 12mo delay
Business Investment Growth outcome
↓ negative strength: 10% confidence: 55% 24mo delay
Healthcare Spending spending
↑ positive strength: 5% confidence: 8%
Public Trust Index other
↑ positive strength: 5% confidence: 7%

🌐 Most Connected Variables

Economic hubs with the most causal relationships — changes here ripple the furthest

Variable Category Outgoing Incoming Total Value
Healthcare Spending spending 93 → → 260 353 $372B
Business Investment Growth outcome 98 → → 157 255 $280B
Public Trust Index other 84 → → 163 247 42
Federal Spending other 91 → → 130 221 538.3
Employment Rate outcome 69 → → 145 214 59.8%
GDP Growth Rate financial 69 → → 144 213 2339.13%
Housing Affordability Index outcome 85 → → 97 182 45
Indigenous Wellbeing Index 55 → → 117 172 52
Federal Budget Balance financial 50 → → 119 169 $-40.1B
Trade Balance economic 63 → → 98 161 $-0.8B
Homelessness Rate (per 10000) outcome 48 → → 107 155 28
Carbon Emissions (Mt CO2) outcome 41 → → 113 154 694
Consumer Spending Growth outcome 56 → → 97 153 $1320B
Mental Health Index other 55 → → 92 147 68
Defence Spending (DND) financial 78 → → 64 142 $50.69B
Healthcare Access other 44 → → 93 137 85
Digital Service Adoption other 74 → → 57 131 55
Infrastructure Quality other 54 → → 73 127 68
Poverty Rate outcome 34 → → 92 126 10.1%
Innovation Index economic 50 → → 76 126 100

📊 Category Breakdown

How variables and causal links distribute across economic categories

Economic
388 Variables
1285 Outgoing Links
1196 Incoming Links
14.9% of model
384 Variables
1022 Outgoing Links
1091 Incoming Links
14.8% of model
Fiscal
287 Variables
646 Outgoing Links
578 Incoming Links
11.0% of model
Healthcare
262 Variables
567 Outgoing Links
569 Incoming Links
10.1% of model
Governance
155 Variables
312 Outgoing Links
215 Incoming Links
6.0% of model
Spending
150 Variables
590 Outgoing Links
469 Incoming Links
5.8% of model
Financial
139 Variables
852 Outgoing Links
843 Incoming Links
5.3% of model
Environment
113 Variables
259 Outgoing Links
204 Incoming Links
4.3% of model
Revenue
108 Variables
244 Outgoing Links
191 Incoming Links
4.2% of model
Infrastructure
91 Variables
191 Outgoing Links
144 Incoming Links
3.5% of model
Other
63 Variables
1919 Outgoing Links
2151 Incoming Links
2.4% of model
Outcome
61 Variables
669 Outgoing Links
1208 Incoming Links
2.3% of model
Employment
51 Variables
138 Outgoing Links
136 Incoming Links
2.0% of model
Transfer
48 Variables
120 Outgoing Links
27 Incoming Links
1.8% of model
Education
43 Variables
106 Outgoing Links
92 Incoming Links
1.7% of model
Legal_access
36 Variables
57 Outgoing Links
37 Incoming Links
1.4% of model
Government_operations
27 Variables
68 Outgoing Links
38 Incoming Links
1.0% of model
Demographic
26 Variables
73 Outgoing Links
26 Incoming Links
1.0% of model
Housing
25 Variables
67 Outgoing Links
67 Incoming Links
1.0% of model
Energy
25 Variables
85 Outgoing Links
61 Incoming Links
1.0% of model
Agriculture
25 Variables
79 Outgoing Links
49 Incoming Links
1.0% of model
Operational
25 Variables
69 Outgoing Links
44 Incoming Links
1.0% of model
Indigenous
15 Variables
46 Outgoing Links
53 Incoming Links
0.6% of model
Immigration
10 Variables
30 Outgoing Links
10 Incoming Links
0.4% of model
Food_security
9 Variables
38 Outgoing Links
45 Incoming Links
0.3% of model
Human_rights
9 Variables
32 Outgoing Links
24 Incoming Links
0.3% of model
Outcome_aggregator
7 Variables
6 Outgoing Links
9 Incoming Links
0.3% of model
Defence
6 Variables
17 Outgoing Links
10 Incoming Links
0.2% of model
Telecommunications
6 Variables
12 Outgoing Links
8 Incoming Links
0.2% of model
Data_sovereignty
5 Variables
7 Outgoing Links
12 Incoming Links
0.2% of model
1 Variables
1 Outgoing Links
2 Incoming Links
0.0% of model
Environmental_policy
1 Variables
1 Outgoing Links
1 Incoming Links
0.0% of model
Security
1 Variables
0 Outgoing Links
0 Incoming Links
0.0% of model

⚡ Strongest Causal Links

The highest-confidence relationships in the economic model

fiscal Ontario Total Revenues
→ +
fiscal Ontario Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%
fiscal Quebec Total Expenses
→ -
fiscal Quebec Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%
fiscal BC Total Revenues
→ +
fiscal British Columbia Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%
fiscal BC Total Expenses
→ -
fiscal British Columbia Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%
fiscal Ontario Total Expenses
→ -
fiscal Ontario Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%
fiscal Quebec Total Revenues
→ +
fiscal Quebec Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%
fiscal PEI Total Revenues
→ +
fiscal PEI Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%
fiscal Yukon Total Revenues
→ +
fiscal Yukon Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%
fiscal Alberta Total Expenses
→ -
fiscal Alberta Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%
fiscal PEI Total Expenses
→ -
fiscal PEI Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%
fiscal NL Total Expenses
→ -
fiscal Newfoundland Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%
fiscal NL Total Revenues
→ +
fiscal Newfoundland Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%
fiscal Ontario Total Expenses
→ -
fiscal Ontario Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%
fiscal Alberta Total Revenues
→ +
fiscal Alberta Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%
fiscal Saskatchewan Total Revenues
→ +
fiscal Saskatchewan Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%

About Intelligence: This page provides a read-only analytical view of the 9617 causal relationships mapped across 2602 economic variables in the Canadian model. All debt figures reflect real government data.

⚠️ Data is for educational purposes — real fiscal outcomes involve additional factors.