Simulation Lab Intelligence

Dashboard Governance Economy Marsh Teams Profile
🧠

Intelligence

Deep analytics on Canada's economic causal model

917 Variables
1005 Causal Links
68 Commodities
79% Avg Confidence
← Back to Simulation Lab

🇨🇦 Canadian Debt Spotlight

Real government debt figures across federal, provincial, and municipal levels

Federal Debt (Accumulated Deficit)
$1,368B
That's $34,200 per Canadian
FEDERAL
Effective Interest Rate on Debt
4.1%
FEDERAL
Federal Debt-to-GDP Ratio
42.3%
FEDERAL
Public Debt Charges (Interest)
$55.6B
MUNICIPAL
Calgary Municipal Debt
$3.5B
MUNICIPAL
Debt Servicing
$0.3B
PROVINCIAL
Alberta Debt Servicing
$3.2B
PROVINCIAL
Alberta Debt-to-GDP Ratio
17.2%
PROVINCIAL
Alberta Net Debt
$76.8B

Debt Ripple Effects

What does the national debt directly influence?

Budgetary Balance (Deficit/Surplus) fiscal
↓ negative strength: 90% confidence: 100%
Fiscal Room (Capacity for New Spending) fiscal
↓ negative strength: 100% confidence: 95%
Federal Debt-to-GDP Ratio fiscal
↑ positive strength: 12% confidence: 95%
Public Debt Charges (Interest) fiscal
↑ positive strength: 4% confidence: 90% 12mo delay
Federal Net Debt Per Canadian Under Age 18 fiscal
↑ positive strength: 70% confidence: 85% 6mo delay
Credit Rating other
↓ negative strength: 70% confidence: 85%
Credit Rating other
↓ negative strength: 65% confidence: 80%
10-Year Bond Rate economic
↑ positive strength: 3% confidence: 65% 24mo delay
Direct Program Expenses spending
↓ negative strength: 15% confidence: 60% 12mo delay
Business Investment Growth outcome
↓ negative strength: 10% confidence: 55% 24mo delay

🌐 Most Connected Variables

Economic hubs with the most causal relationships — changes here ripple the furthest

Variable Category Outgoing Incoming Total Value
GDP Growth Rate economic 20 → → 34 54 2.1%
Employment Rate outcome 7 → → 15 22 94.5%
Defence Spending spending 18 → → 4 22 $30.58B
Healthcare Spending spending 6 → → 16 22 $372B
Budgetary Balance (Deficit/Surplus) fiscal 2 → → 13 15 $-78.3B
Federal Revenues revenue 2 → → 13 15 $507.5B
Trade Balance economic 0 → → 14 14 $-7.2B
Nominal GDP economic 3 → → 11 14 $3183B
Business Investment Growth outcome 2 → → 11 13 $280B
US Tariff Rate on Canadian Goods governance 13 → → 0 13 0%
Carbon Emissions (Mt CO2) outcome 0 → → 12 12 694
Housing Starts (annual) outcome 4 → → 8 12 245120
Consumer Spending Growth outcome 2 → → 10 12 $1300B
Exports to United States economic 4 → → 7 11 $547.3B
WTI Oil Price economic 11 → → 0 11 75
Inflation Rate (CPI) economic 7 → → 3 10 2.5%
Bank of Canada Policy Rate economic 10 → → 0 10 3%
Ontario Nominal GDP economic 5 → → 5 10 $1214.6B
Clean Energy Sector Employment employment 3 → → 7 10 130
Alberta Education Property Tax Requisition (Total) fiscal 7 → → 3 10 $3.124B

📊 Category Breakdown

How variables and causal links distribute across economic categories

Fiscal
182 Variables
153 Outgoing Links
196 Incoming Links
19.8% of model
Economic
142 Variables
283 Outgoing Links
265 Incoming Links
15.5% of model
Spending
141 Variables
113 Outgoing Links
43 Incoming Links
15.4% of model
Revenue
103 Variables
31 Outgoing Links
70 Incoming Links
11.2% of model
Other
63 Variables
18 Outgoing Links
18 Incoming Links
6.9% of model
Outcome
57 Variables
53 Outgoing Links
149 Incoming Links
6.2% of model
Transfer
48 Variables
25 Outgoing Links
19 Incoming Links
5.2% of model
Governance
46 Variables
68 Outgoing Links
43 Incoming Links
5.0% of model
39 Variables
45 Outgoing Links
65 Incoming Links
4.3% of model
Demographic
20 Variables
21 Outgoing Links
4 Incoming Links
2.2% of model
Food_security
10 Variables
17 Outgoing Links
24 Incoming Links
1.1% of model
Infrastructure
10 Variables
28 Outgoing Links
12 Incoming Links
1.1% of model
Human_rights
9 Variables
16 Outgoing Links
13 Incoming Links
1.0% of model
Energy
7 Variables
24 Outgoing Links
3 Incoming Links
0.8% of model
Telecommunications
6 Variables
12 Outgoing Links
7 Incoming Links
0.7% of model
Defence
6 Variables
17 Outgoing Links
7 Incoming Links
0.7% of model
Immigration
5 Variables
12 Outgoing Links
5 Incoming Links
0.5% of model
Data_sovereignty
5 Variables
7 Outgoing Links
10 Incoming Links
0.5% of model
Environment
5 Variables
11 Outgoing Links
13 Incoming Links
0.5% of model
Agriculture
5 Variables
11 Outgoing Links
5 Incoming Links
0.5% of model
Labour
4 Variables
8 Outgoing Links
5 Incoming Links
0.4% of model
Legal_access
2 Variables
4 Outgoing Links
1 Incoming Links
0.2% of model
Employment
2 Variables
5 Outgoing Links
8 Incoming Links
0.2% of model

⚡ Strongest Causal Links

The highest-confidence relationships in the economic model

fiscal Quebec Total Expenses
→ -
fiscal Quebec Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%
fiscal Ontario Total Expenses
→ -
fiscal Ontario Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%
fiscal NL Total Revenues
→ +
fiscal Newfoundland Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%
fiscal Quebec Total Revenues
→ +
fiscal Quebec Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%
fiscal Ontario Total Revenues
→ +
fiscal Ontario Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%
fiscal BC Total Expenses
→ -
fiscal British Columbia Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%
fiscal Alberta Total Expenses
→ -
fiscal Alberta Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%
fiscal PEI Total Expenses
→ -
fiscal PEI Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%
fiscal PEI Total Revenues
→ +
fiscal PEI Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%
fiscal Yukon Total Revenues
→ +
fiscal Yukon Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%
fiscal NL Total Expenses
→ -
fiscal Newfoundland Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%
fiscal Alberta Total Revenues
→ +
fiscal Alberta Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%
revenue Federal Revenues
→ +
fiscal Budgetary Balance (Deficit/Surplus)
💪 500% 🎯 100%
fiscal BC Total Revenues
→ +
fiscal British Columbia Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%
fiscal Saskatchewan Total Revenues
→ +
fiscal Saskatchewan Budget Surplus
💪 500% 🎯 100%

About Intelligence: This page provides a read-only analytical view of the 1005 causal relationships mapped across 917 economic variables in the Canadian model. All debt figures reflect real government data.

⚠️ Data is for educational purposes — real fiscal outcomes involve additional factors.